Is President Obama set for a Reagan-like reelection?
In January of 1984, months before Ronald Reagan was reelected, the unemployment rate was at 8%.
At the time, President Reagan said, "I'm pleased to report that America is much improved, and there's good reason to believe that improvement will continue through the days to come."
By the time the 1984 election rolled around, the unemployment rate was at 7.4%.
And even though it was the highest unemployment rate for a president seeking reelection since WWII, voters felt like recovery was in full swing and swept him back into office.
Today, the Obama Administration is celebrating its own numbers.
Unemployment in America has fallen to 8.3% – not unlike Reagan’s 8% – and the country has added 243,000 jobs.
On Friday President Obama said:
“The recovery is speeding up and we've got to do everything in our power to keep it going.”
So, is it “morning again in America” for Barack Obama?
It might not be so easy for THIS president.
Imagine a pie that represents the 8.7 million people who have lost their jobs since the recession began in 2008.
Under President Obama, we’ve regained 3.2 million of those jobs, about 37% of the pie.
If the trend continues, it could definitely help the President’s chances for reelection.
But will it?
Because even though the unemployment rate under President Reagan fell dramatically in 1984, it bottomed out in the spring and then ROSE during the summer, before finally settling at 7.4% around election time.
And as Jim Bianco, the President of Bianco Research, points out:
“Lower is always better… But Bush 41 lost, Carter lost and Ford lost with similar unemployment rates, around 7.5 percent. So, we’ve had four elections in the WW2-era with a 7-handle on unemployment and only one resulted in a reelection.”