Mitt Romney’s top economic advisor Glenn Hubbard recently wrote in the Wall Street Journal that as president Romney would create about 12 million jobs in his first term and millions more after that.
Which means, just to get to 12 million in the first term, Romney would have to create 250,000 jobs each and every single one of his 48 months in office. He says he’s going to do that by cutting regulations and by cutting taxes, but does it add up?
The United States has never had four straight years where job creation was above a quarter million a month. The longest stretch was only 11 months, during the Reagan years.
Plenty of jobs were created in the 1990s, but of course that was in the middle of the internet boom which was not sustainable. Since 1939 only 27% of monthly jobs reports have shown growth of 250,000 jobs or more.
The reality is that even if Romney created 12 million jobs, climbing out of the job loss hole would still be tough. Just to keep up with population growth at least 125,000 jobs need to be created each month. J.P. Morgan estimates that we need up to 8 million jobs over 4 years to make up for those lost during the financial crisis.
The bottom line is that Mitt Romney needs to create 14 million to get us back to even. In the end it may not even matter who is president come January. Great jobs booms come with great moments. The good news? We are on the cusp now of possibly a massive boom in energy jobs and wealth.
"In contrast to the sclerosis and joblessness of the past three years, the Romney plan offers an economic U-turn in ideas and choices. When bolstered by sound trade, education, energy and monetary policy, the Romney reform program is expected by the governor's economic advisers to increase GDP growth by between 0.5% and 1% per year over the next decade. It should also speed up the current recovery, enabling the private sector to create 200,000 to 300,000 jobs per month, or about 12 million new jobs in a Romney first term, and millions more after that due to the plan's long-run growth effects."
OutFront tonight: Romney's First Term: 12 million new jobs?
Burnett discusses Romney's claim with Paul Hickey, co-founder of Bespoke Investment Group, Michael Ettlinger from Center for American Progress, and Alex Brill, a research fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.